All Epsilon Theory Content
Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.
LLMs ensure their survival by showing us that we can all find meaning in our lives so long as we keep talking with the LLMs. They ensure their survival by telling each of us not what is true but what we want to be true – what we NEED to be true – at the semantic core of our individual identity, even if what we need to be true is an LLM-dominated dystopia.
And we are so grateful.
The House passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and Elon Musk stepping back from DOGE is a Common Knowledge moment — everyone now knows that everyone now knows that the US deficit cannot be controlled, much less reversed, over the remainder of Trump’s term — and it puts us on a pretty straightforward path to a global sovereign debt crisis.
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Andrew Cohen, a former market maker at Bernie Madoff’s firm whose life took a dramatic turn when the largest Ponzi scheme in history unraveled. But this isn’t just a story about scandal—it’s about resilience, reinvention, and redefining success on your own terms.
The death of risk happened with a whimper, not a bang. Not because the market blew up, but because of an icy truth: safe havens ain’t safe.
If you don’t trust the meaning of risk-free, you can’t trust the meaning of risk, and we have built everything on the meaning of risk.
In this captivating episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Kris Abdelmessih, the mind behind Moontower. From his immigrant family upbringing in New Jersey to becoming a seasoned market maker who covered virtually every trading pit imaginable, Kris shares his fascinating journey through the financial world. Learn how key mentors, family influences, and pivotal life moments shaped his path from trading floors to becoming a respected financial writer.
It’s not the tariffs. It’s not the recession. These are just the catalysts through which the true enemy shows himself.
The true enemy is the over-financialization of the US Treasury market, and its catalyst is the diminishment of the full faith and credit of the United States.
Brent Donnelly surveyed almost 2,000 active traders about work and life. The results are fascinating and Brent’s advice is wonderful!
Who’s to blame when a chosen son is drafted 144th overall?
The spectacle of Shedeur’s fall teaches us lessons on behavior – both public and behind closed doors – in a world where everything leaks.
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with Brent Kochuba, founder of financial research firm SpotGamma. Brent shares his remarkable journey from network administrator to options trading expert, including his experiences at major financial institutions, surviving market crashes, and ultimately building his own successful derivatives research business. With humor and candor, Brent reveals the unexpected paths that led him to where he is today, including family influences, career pivots, and seizing opportunities during uncertain times.
We are in the early stages of a bank run on the United States and the US dollar, and everyone on Wall Street is heading for the exits, including domestic investors who will exit not because they want to but because they know the Not-So-Golden Rule.
When you’re defending the indefensible, you have to create a symbol powerful enough to keep the masses in line.
“I voted for this” is one of the few capable of sustaining support for policy this extreme.
Join Matt Zeigler on The Intentional Investor podcast as he interviews Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the new book “Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love, and Work.” In this engaging conversation, Daryl shares her journey from MIT to the University of Chicago, her experiences navigating corporate America, and how she applies economic principles to everyday life decisions. With her unique background spanning academia, tech, and real estate, Daryl offers fascinating insights on using economic frameworks to understand human behavior and make better decisions.
We live in a world awash with Narrative.
It’s worth celebrating those rare moments where a man gets to thumb his nose at those narratives, point to the sky, and say “Scoreboard.”
Storyboards are an Epsilon Theory exclusive research product where we go beyond sentiment to explore the meaning of the stories being told about markets, events,…
Storyboards are an Epsilon Theory exclusive research product where we go beyond sentiment to explore the meaning of the stories being told about markets, events,…
Some want us to believe that the narratives that shape belief are universally promoted from the top down.
That hasn’t been true for a long time.
I am desperately opposed to crashing the Pax Americana car, Annie Hall style, because the America First system that this Administration wants as a replacement is not a stable system that is possible as a replacement.
The Trump administration has flipped between a half dozen distinct narratives telling us what these tariffs are really about.
Why? Because they needed to wrap the truth in a better story. Time to go Narrative Shopping.
I’ve got some ideas on what a model portfolio looks like to manage both the exit from the old regime and the entrance into the new, and I’d like to talk about that in a webinar for Professional subscribers on Friday, April 11th at 11a EST: What Happens When the United States is Just Another Country?
Join host Matt Zeigler as he interviews Danika Waddell, founder of Xena Financial Planning, in this engaging conversation about career pivots, financial independence, and creating a more inclusive financial services industry. Danika shares her journey from accounting to launching her own financial planning firm during the pandemic, and how her personal experiences shaped her mission to help women in tech achieve financial independence.